For decades, the Indian subcontinent has been a theater not only for overt political and military rivalries but also for a hidden conflict—a shadow war of covert operations, intelligence maneuvering, and psychological warfare. As South Asia’s largest power and one of the world’s fastest-growing economies, India has expanded its strategic footprint, often away from the global spotlight. Its covert operations, particularly in Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and even within its own territory, reveal a complex doctrine shaped by a combination of realpolitik, national security imperatives, and a desire for regional dominance.



This shadow war is not fought with tanks or fighter jets, but with proxy militias, cyber tools, intelligence networks, and clandestine influence operations. While India’s role as a regional hegemon has grown, so too have the consequences of its covert activities—sparking instability, diplomatic tensions, and in some cases, full-blown conflicts across South Asia.


Historical Roots of India’s Covert Strategy


India’s intelligence apparatus, primarily led by the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), has evolved since its establishment in 1968 following the debacle of the 1962 Sino-Indian war. Inspired partly by the CIA and Mossad models, RAW was tasked with gathering external intelligence and conducting strategic covert operations. Over time, it has played a pivotal role in shaping India's foreign policy, often operating outside the public eye and official diplomatic channels.


One of RAW’s most celebrated operations was its involvement in the creation of Bangladesh in 1971. Through espionage, sabotage, and logistical support to the Mukti Bahini, India significantly weakened West Pakistan’s hold over East Pakistan, culminating in a decisive military intervention. This success emboldened India's belief in the utility of covert operations as a legitimate statecraft tool.


Afghanistan and the Pakistan Factor


Since the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, India has made considerable inroads into Afghan political and security institutions. While India officially focused on reconstruction and development, Pakistan has long accused RAW of using Afghan soil to orchestrate sabotage inside Pakistan, particularly in the volatile province of Balochistan.


In 2016, the arrest of Kulbhushan Jadhav, a former Indian naval officer allegedly operating as a RAW agent in Balochistan and Karachi, marked a turning point. Pakistan claimed Jadhav confessed to supporting separatist insurgents and orchestrating terrorist activities. India denied the charges, asserting he was kidnapped from Iran, but the case highlighted how deeply covert operations had penetrated bilateral relations. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) became involved, but the fallout reinforced suspicions and led to an escalation in covert countermeasures by both states.


Covert Engagement in Sri Lanka and Nepal


India’s covert role in Sri Lanka during the civil war era is another example of its shadow war doctrine. Initially, India supported the Tamil Tigers through training and arms during the early 1980s, driven by domestic Tamil politics and a strategic desire to assert influence. However, when the LTTE turned against Indian interests, particularly after the assassination of former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi in 1991, New Delhi recalibrated its approach, later supporting the Sri Lankan government’s efforts to end the insurgency.


In Nepal, India’s intelligence community has long wielded influence, often meddling in internal politics to counterbalance Chinese encroachment. The 2015 unofficial blockade, widely believed to be engineered by India in response to Nepal’s new constitution and growing Chinese ties, disrupted essential supplies and sparked anti-India sentiments. Though not officially a covert operation, the blockade reflected India’s willingness to apply pressure through unconventional means.


Cyber Espionage and Disinformation Campaigns


In the digital age, India’s covert capabilities have extended into cyberspace. Accusations of Indian cyber espionage have surfaced across South Asia. Pakistani institutions, including government ministries and military infrastructure, have reported persistent cyber intrusions allegedly originating from Indian-backed entities.


Moreover, information warfare has become a new frontier. A 2020 report by the EU DisinfoLab revealed a 15-year-long influence operation run by the Indian network “Srivastava Group,” which created fake media outlets and NGOs to shape international opinion against Pakistan. This covert media network not only discredited adversaries but also amplified India’s strategic narrative in Western capitals, subtly shaping policy perceptions.


Kashmir: The Epicenter of the Shadow War


Kashmir remains the most active and contested battlefield in the shadow war between India and Pakistan. India accuses Pakistan of supporting cross-border terrorism, while Pakistan accuses India of state-sponsored repression and psychological warfare against the Kashmiri people. Within this fraught territory, covert operations have ranged from extrajudicial killings to surveillance, internet blackouts, and manipulation of local politics.


Following the revocation of Article 370 in August 2019, India intensified its security operations in Kashmir, leading to widespread arrests, media clampdowns, and curfews. While the move was framed as an internal constitutional matter, the scale of covert suppression raised alarms about human rights violations and the weaponization of intelligence.


Pakistan’s response has not been passive. It has supported proxy groups, launched diplomatic offensives, and employed its own intelligence networks to keep the Kashmir issue alive on global platforms. This cat-and-mouse game in the shadows has significantly raised the stakes for both nations, increasing the likelihood of accidental escalations.


Domestic Fallout and Regional Consequences


India’s covert operations, while aimed at external threats, have had internal consequences. Blowback from operations, such as terrorist reprisals and communal polarization, have periodically destabilized the Indian heartland. The 2008 Mumbai attacks, for instance, although blamed on Pakistani militants, exposed vulnerabilities in Indian intelligence coordination and border security—ironically worsened by an overemphasis on external threats.


Regionally, India’s covert ambitions have driven smaller neighbors into strategic hedging. Countries like Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, and Sri Lanka increasingly balance Indian influence with Chinese investments and security partnerships. This shifting balance erodes India's ability to act unilaterally, as seen in the failure of some of its covert initiatives to yield long-term diplomatic gains.


India’s Changing Doctrine and the Quest for Strategic Depth


In recent years, India has become more assertive in acknowledging the need for proactive intelligence strategies. Calls from military and political leaders to adopt an “offensive defense” strategy echo the belief that covert capabilities are essential to counter hybrid warfare threats from adversaries like China and Pakistan.


This shift aligns with global trends. Major powers increasingly rely on covert tools—cyber operations, economic sanctions, and information warfare—to achieve strategic goals without open conflict. For India, which faces a two-front challenge and a volatile neighborhood, the shadow war provides a flexible, deniable means of advancing national interests.


Yet, this strategic shift is not without risks. As India expands its covert reach, it risks inviting reciprocal actions, regional instability, and reputational damage—particularly if its operations are exposed or result in civilian harm.


The Ethical and Legal Dilemma


Covert operations raise serious ethical and legal concerns. Unlike conventional warfare, covert actions often operate in a grey zone—outside legal frameworks, and with limited accountability. Civilian casualties, false flag operations, and disinformation campaigns can erode democratic norms, both at home and abroad.


India, as the world’s largest democracy, must grapple with the contradiction of using undemocratic methods for national security. The secrecy surrounding these operations often shields wrongdoing from public scrutiny and parliamentary oversight. This lack of transparency can lead to abuses of power and violations of international law.


Furthermore, the normalization of covert warfare risks making diplomacy obsolete. If every disagreement is addressed through sabotage or manipulation, trust between states collapses, and peaceful resolution becomes elusive.


Conclusion: Navigating the Shadows


India’s covert operations reflect a broader strategic recalibration in a rapidly changing geopolitical environment. As China asserts itself in the Indo-Pacific, and as Pakistan persists with its own covert tactics, India feels compelled to respond with equal intensity. The resulting shadow war is reshaping South Asian geopolitics, blurring the lines between war and peace, truth and propaganda, diplomacy and espionage.


However, the costs are mounting. Trust is eroding, regional alliances are fraying, and civilians often bear the brunt of covert hostilities. For India to emerge as a responsible regional leader and a global power, it must balance its security needs with adherence to international norms and ethical statecraft.


The shadows will always be part of international relations, but how India navigates them will determine whether it can lead the region toward stability—or trap it in perpetual conflict behind a veil of secrecy.